Go ahead! Point your fingers at me and laugh for my absurd prediction. But I must remind you all that it was a 'prediction', and one made early in the year just like the rest before the blues kicked off the season. I also need to point out that these predictions are merely based on head and my heart certainly doesn't agree with most of them. Then again, it can regularly be a win-win situation for me. I will admit it feels great when Carlton approach my hideous-looking tips. On the other hand, I love it when they go out there and prove me wrong with a spirited effort and perhaps a win to further back it up. I'm left smiling either way, because one of us is right. This match was the perfect example. I expected major disappointment and a massive loss, but instead witnessed a marvelous victory from a side with great belief and signs of a brighter future. It's one of those very few moments when being wrong doesn't hurt in any way. As a matter of fact, I see it taking away much of my pain.
MARGIN
(Predicted : Real)
-89 points : +4 points
Difference: + 93
Despite the huge difference, could anybody really blame me for having thought this way? After all, we are talking about Carlton. A team coming off a wooden spoon from two wins last year. They've long struggled to both identify a winning formula and hold onto a lead. Recent history against Fremantle isn't so friendly, with the dockers having won six of the last seven encounters by an average more than five goals. This includes last year's debacle where the blues did not register a single major while conceding a dozen in the first half. Funnily enough, that was Carlton coming off a bye. This time around it was the same thing, except that Freo held the home ground advantage. Adding to all this, was the absence of superstar co-captain Patrick Cripps, promising tall forward Harry McKay and small goal sneak David Cuningham heading into the round. Not to mention losing the in-form Charlie Curnow halfway through the first term. This was a game Carlton weren't ever supposed to win, and the odds stacked against them only grew bigger with time. The boys somehow fought off the pressure and brought home the chocolates. A performance impossible for all to not admire.
First Quarter
For the third consecutive match, the blues fumbled and fell asleep to allow their opponents in kicking away. Carlton started the game alright, despite the dockers registering the first major of the game. The boys managed to lower the eyes and hit some chests inside the forward 50 within the first ten minutes. Unfortunately, no one could convert the opportunities on the scoreboard. Charlie Curnow having been one of them before going down with a game-ending knee injury. His brother Ed, took on the captain role with Cripps out and was given the task of running with the ever-so dangerous Nat Fyfe. He competed well around the centre of the ground, but Fyfe outmuscled him when dragged into Fremantle's attacking 50. Cam McCarthy answered for the Freo's depleted forward line, kicking two of the five goals to help give his team a 29-point advantage before the first break. Brandon Matera and Michael Walters also joined in the fun with one each.
Second Quarter
The blues fought back beautifully with four of the five goals for the term to bring the margin from 29 down to 10. Michael Gibbons helped getting things started with a nice set shot goal. Following him with a major of his own was Sam Petrevski-Seton, who dominated the quarter and made himself a danger near the ball to Freo. Paddy Dow stood out the back of a contest and made up for the earlier miss. He repeated the backdoor play, this time assisting Mitch McGovern in his turn for some scoreboard damage. Lochie O'Brien had a couple of chances to join the party, but both were to no avail. Captain Ed was released from the Fyfe responsibility, passing the baton over to Jack Silvagni. Fremantle hung on tightly to the lead, further making sure of it with a goal to Brennan Cox from quick play. But all the praise continued going Carlton's way for their ground work around play. Things were back to getting very interesting.
The blues fought back beautifully with four of the five goals for the term to bring the margin from 29 down to 10. Michael Gibbons helped getting things started with a nice set shot goal. Following him with a major of his own was Sam Petrevski-Seton, who dominated the quarter and made himself a danger near the ball to Freo. Paddy Dow stood out the back of a contest and made up for the earlier miss. He repeated the backdoor play, this time assisting Mitch McGovern in his turn for some scoreboard damage. Lochie O'Brien had a couple of chances to join the party, but both were to no avail. Captain Ed was released from the Fyfe responsibility, passing the baton over to Jack Silvagni. Fremantle hung on tightly to the lead, further making sure of it with a goal to Brennan Cox from quick play. But all the praise continued going Carlton's way for their ground work around play. Things were back to getting very interesting.
Third Quarter
It was a fairly even battle, though Freo had edged the blues out by two points to go into three-quarter time two goals clear. Carlton got their two goals within the first eleven minutes. The first coming from Levi Casboult, who kicked truly and put his years of set shot yips to rest. The second came from a controversial free kick to Matthew Kennedy for what was seen by the umpire to be a rough hold and tackle off play. Kennedy played on and kicked around the body with success whilst a few were going at it on the boundary line closer in. The dockers would later return fire through McCarthy, with his two goals coming from the tightest of angles and around the 50-metre line. Fremantle peppered away, with misses to each of Darcy Tucker, Walters, Fyfe and Nathan Wilson. At the other end, it was Silvagni and Marc Murphy missing for the blues. This quarter included Ed Langdon taking a spectacular mark for the dockers, running back into the arm of Dale Thomas with eyes firmly on the ball.
It was a fairly even battle, though Freo had edged the blues out by two points to go into three-quarter time two goals clear. Carlton got their two goals within the first eleven minutes. The first coming from Levi Casboult, who kicked truly and put his years of set shot yips to rest. The second came from a controversial free kick to Matthew Kennedy for what was seen by the umpire to be a rough hold and tackle off play. Kennedy played on and kicked around the body with success whilst a few were going at it on the boundary line closer in. The dockers would later return fire through McCarthy, with his two goals coming from the tightest of angles and around the 50-metre line. Fremantle peppered away, with misses to each of Darcy Tucker, Walters, Fyfe and Nathan Wilson. At the other end, it was Silvagni and Marc Murphy missing for the blues. This quarter included Ed Langdon taking a spectacular mark for the dockers, running back into the arm of Dale Thomas with eyes firmly on the ball.
Fourth Quarter
It was another scare for some Carlton supporters. The blue boys had the foot on the accelerator for the first few minutes, but couldn't quite translate it to scoreboard damage. Mitch McGovern, Levi Casboult and Sam Walsh were unable to find the space between the big sticks. Silvagni however, found himself a goal after being on the receiving end of a funny kick from O'Brien inside 50. Tucker helped keeping Freo in front and further pressure was placed on Carlton when Walters made the blues pay after an almost costly error from Dow at the other end. Kade Simpson got to prove he still had the class as an ageing defender, using his favoured left foot to open up the angle and slot a wonderful set shot goal. Kennedy also got involved with number two. Daisy with speed ran towards goal on the other side from the forward 50 entry to soccer one through and put the blues in front. It wasn't over for Fremantle, as Sam Switkowski tried his hardest quieting the blues faithful with a loose ball get and a hook around the body. My heart did not race given the usual disappointment from Carlton, but it didn't matter. Murphy became the hero with the clutch-est of clutch goals to give his side the win they hungered for. Nothing else mattered.
PLUSES / MINUSES
PLUSES / MINUSES
1. A win... after the bye... in Perth... against a top 8 team... without Cripps... without McKay... without Cuningham... and without Charlie for most of the game. Not forgetting that it was after being around five goals down. There's just no wiping the smile off my face.
2. That clutch goal by Marc Murphy. Perfect!
3. Ed Curnow handled the captaincy very well.
4. All the seniors really stood up. Levi Casboult and Matthew Kreuzer rotated nicely in the ruck duties. Kade Simpson and Dale Thomas also got on the board when it mattered.
5. Just the simple freedom and game from the blues. Carlton at the moment are fun to watch. Sorry Brendan Bolton, but I think the CEO and board's decision to let you go was a good one.
1. More large numbers accumulated by the star first-year player. However, to go at 33.3% efficiency is certainly going to hurt his chances at the rising star award. Especially after Geelong's Gryan Miers and Richmond's Sydney Stack put on damaging displays to help register wins for their respective teams. Excluding Charlie who went down, this was the lowest percentage in the Carlton team. Of the 30 disposals from Sam Walsh, only 10 of them were effective.
2. Despite both Jack Silvagni and Kade Simpson nailing goals from tight angles, set shot kicking is still somewhat of an issue. I believe a little more attention needs to be placed on this issue.
3. Carlton really need to address their first quarter problem. These convincing leads for their opponents only makes it tougher for them to grab four points.
2. That clutch goal by Marc Murphy. Perfect!
3. Ed Curnow handled the captaincy very well.
4. All the seniors really stood up. Levi Casboult and Matthew Kreuzer rotated nicely in the ruck duties. Kade Simpson and Dale Thomas also got on the board when it mattered.
5. Just the simple freedom and game from the blues. Carlton at the moment are fun to watch. Sorry Brendan Bolton, but I think the CEO and board's decision to let you go was a good one.
1. More large numbers accumulated by the star first-year player. However, to go at 33.3% efficiency is certainly going to hurt his chances at the rising star award. Especially after Geelong's Gryan Miers and Richmond's Sydney Stack put on damaging displays to help register wins for their respective teams. Excluding Charlie who went down, this was the lowest percentage in the Carlton team. Of the 30 disposals from Sam Walsh, only 10 of them were effective.
2. Despite both Jack Silvagni and Kade Simpson nailing goals from tight angles, set shot kicking is still somewhat of an issue. I believe a little more attention needs to be placed on this issue.
3. Carlton really need to address their first quarter problem. These convincing leads for their opponents only makes it tougher for them to grab four points.
SCORES
1. SAM WALSH 20
2. Marc Murphy 10
3. Nic Newman 9
2. Marc Murphy 10
3. Nic Newman 9
4. Ed Curnow 8
5. Sam Petrevski-Seton 7
6. Caleb Marchbank 6
6. Caleb Marchbank 6
7. Levi Casboult 5
8. Dale Thomas 4
9. Matthew Kreuzer 3
10 = Will Setterfield 1.5
10 = Jack Silvagni 1.5
12. Michael Gibbons 0
13. Lachie Plowman -1
14. Zac Fisher -2
15. Lochie O'Brien -3
16 = Liam Jones -5
16 = Matthew Kennedy -5
16 = Kade Simpson -5
19. Jacob Weitering -7
20. Mitch McGovern -8
21. Paddy Dow -9
15. Lochie O'Brien -3
16 = Liam Jones -5
16 = Matthew Kennedy -5
16 = Kade Simpson -5
19. Jacob Weitering -7
20. Mitch McGovern -8
21. Paddy Dow -9
22. Charlie Curnow -10
TOTAL
1. Patrick Cripps 148.5
2. Sam Walsh 111
3. Nic Newman 84
4. Sam Petrevski-Seton 76
5. Ed Curnow 72.5
6. Marc Murphy 65
7. Dale Thomas 59
8. Matthew Kreuzer 46
9. Andrew Phillips 20.5
10. Charlie Curnow 20
TOTAL
1. Patrick Cripps 148.5
2. Sam Walsh 111
3. Nic Newman 84
4. Sam Petrevski-Seton 76
5. Ed Curnow 72.5
6. Marc Murphy 65
7. Dale Thomas 59
8. Matthew Kreuzer 46
9. Andrew Phillips 20.5
10. Charlie Curnow 20
11. David Cuningham 13.5
12. Kade Simpson 13
13. Zac Fisher 12
14. Will Setterfield 0
15. Matthew Lobbe -2
16. Darcy Lang -7
17 = Levi Casboult -8.5
17 = Harry McKay -8.5
19. Harrison Macreadie -10
20. Tom Williamson -13.5
21. Jarrod Garlett -14
22. Jack Silvagni -17
23. Matthew Kennedy -17.5
24. Michael Gibbons -20
25. Caleb Marchbank -22.5
26. Lachie Plowman -24
27. Alex Fasolo -25
28. Cameron Polson -26
29. Liam Stocker -30
30. Paddy Dow -31
31. Lochie O'Brien -35
32. Jacob Weitering -45
12. Kade Simpson 13
13. Zac Fisher 12
14. Will Setterfield 0
15. Matthew Lobbe -2
16. Darcy Lang -7
17 = Levi Casboult -8.5
17 = Harry McKay -8.5
19. Harrison Macreadie -10
20. Tom Williamson -13.5
21. Jarrod Garlett -14
22. Jack Silvagni -17
23. Matthew Kennedy -17.5
24. Michael Gibbons -20
25. Caleb Marchbank -22.5
26. Lachie Plowman -24
27. Alex Fasolo -25
28. Cameron Polson -26
29. Liam Stocker -30
30. Paddy Dow -31
31. Lochie O'Brien -35
32. Jacob Weitering -45
33. Liam Jones -47
34. Mitch McGovern -57.5
34. Mitch McGovern -57.5
THOSE WHO IMPRESSED ME
Ed Curnow
Believe it or not, I wasn't at all surprised with the decision to hand Ed the temporary role as captain. Marc Murphy had six years of it and probably wanted to permanently step away from such a responsibility. Then there's Kade Simpson who is in his last years whilst battling injuries and form issues. Who better to take over the reigns than Curnow the elder? A man who had to fight for his career in one of the hardest ways possible. I've heard the word from teammates including Harry McKay, who pointed out his spiritual leadership. The way Ed speaks himself is strong and the passion for the club is clear as day. Arguably the most underrated performer proved his worth on Sunday evening, collecting 32 touches, 4 tackles and a whopping 15 clearances (the equal most of any player in 2019 so far). This was after having a bit of difficult time against Nat Fyfe. I'm not one to say the small forward experiment has been an absolute failure, since Ed led the goal tally of those in the position for quite some time. But one thing I can comfortably agree with is that the middle of the ground is his home.
Liam Jones
All it took was one of his three strong contested grabs for me to understand how sorely missed he was. Despite Levi Casboult being a nice replacement for the time he was out, Liam Jones returned to show his strengths were far greater for the full-back position. He bravely put his body on the line and crashed many contests with success, even after a long absence with post-concussion symptoms. Although there was that significant error in one of his passes which gave Cam McCarthy one of the finest goals from around the boundary line, nearly everything else Jones did was a plus one to Carlton's chances of winning. Given the severity of the knockout he received a couple of months ago, I did hold a little concern before the match and kind of hoped he would run out with the helmet. It didn't happen, but I'm glad he played the whole game without any problems. He is that valuable of a player to the blues right now. Great to have you back Liam!
Liam Jones
All it took was one of his three strong contested grabs for me to understand how sorely missed he was. Despite Levi Casboult being a nice replacement for the time he was out, Liam Jones returned to show his strengths were far greater for the full-back position. He bravely put his body on the line and crashed many contests with success, even after a long absence with post-concussion symptoms. Although there was that significant error in one of his passes which gave Cam McCarthy one of the finest goals from around the boundary line, nearly everything else Jones did was a plus one to Carlton's chances of winning. Given the severity of the knockout he received a couple of months ago, I did hold a little concern before the match and kind of hoped he would run out with the helmet. It didn't happen, but I'm glad he played the whole game without any problems. He is that valuable of a player to the blues right now. Great to have you back Liam!
Marc Murphy
Consider this guy another one to benefit strongly from the freedom of play under caretaker coach David Teague. Marc Murphy had completely put critics in their rightful place of shame, leading the disposal count with 34 while also collecting 7 clearances and 3 tackles in wet conditions. From what I saw, he looked incredibly confident in his game. Especially coming after a stint on the sidelines with fractured ribs, this is nothing short of admirable. The weight of the captaincy off his shoulders has undoubtedly done him wonders. It's great seeing him smile and get reward for both his care and efforts. It would also be criminal of me not to mention and praise that clutch goal of his to snatch the victory for his team. I had to keep my emotions bottled at the time, but deep down I was ecstatic. Much to the point where I'm now and then leaving a clip of it on loop. Thank you Murph for making my day. Stay for as long as you please.
Honourable Mentions
Levi Casboult, Caleb Marchbank, Nic Newman, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Lachie Plowman, Jack Silvagni, Jacob Weitering
THOSE WHO DISAPPOINTED ME
Matthew Kennedy
Just for the record, no! It is not in any way easy for me to find the poor performances and bring them into the light, especially after a win as team oriented as this one. I say team oriented because this was one of those games when one can easily see everybody having contributed to the result. Even Charlie did so in his few minutes on the ground before injuring himself. So here I'll mostly be looking for certain aspects of a player's game here rather than focusing on the players alone. First one being our only multiple goal-scorer in Matthew Kennedy. Credit goes to him for taking his chances well. But when it came to the contested work and one-on-one stuff, I was left concerned. We picked this guy up to support Cripps as another big body in the centre. On the night however, there were two or three moments when he was completely exposed by his opponents in both strength and positioning. It allowed Freo for some fairly easy contested grabs. I hope for Kennedy to find his permanent spot in the line-up, but he has to fix this part of his game.
Mitch McGovern
With Harry McKay out and Charlie going down, it was his opportunity to deliver and show the chase for his services was worth it. But it wasn't to be. When it comes to players performing well below their potential, Mitch McGovern could just about be the best example right now. Although he did get involved in the scoring, his stats are an absolute eyesore. Eight disposals at about 38% to go with just two marks and two tackles. Gov was dropping simple marks and making things harder for both himself and the rest of the team. To top it off, he once again suffers another minor mid-match injury to make it six so far this season (three more than the next player). Luckily only two of them had seen him out for the following week. This is still a problem though. I'm well aware of the guy's bad luck and rough history with hamstrings and so on. But I'm beginning to think McGovern is a little frail. That and the form slump is something Carlton really cannot afford at the moment.
Lochie O'Brien
I do enjoy watching Lochie O'Brien's run and carry. I also love his ability to find open space and use it to his advantage. His ball use on the other hand, becomes a little frustrating. My goodness, I lost count with this kid when it came to the kicks out on the full. Some of them weren't even under any pressure whatsoever. I'm not sure whether it is his ball drop or his ability to measure his kicks. Whatever it is, it should be his number one focus at training. If Lochie is going to be an outside mid or half-back runner, it is extremely important that he can scan for targets and hit them well enough. Otherwise he will only be placing further weight on the backline. They shouldn't have to be cleaning up his mess most of the time. I'm hoping with every ounce of my being that O'Brien comes good. I am hoping he can be one of many pieces in the club's success. He is one of many strong opportunities for proving that Carlton can develop their own. There is work to be done though and with Lochie, it is disposal. Efficiency is key.
Dishonourable mentions
Paddy Dow, Will Setterfield
OTHER NOTES
- I only just noticed during this match. When did Samo get rid of the rat tail? I'm even surprised that he'd go ahead with cutting it off.
- Why on Earth did the match start so late? Doesn't a twilight game kick off at 4:40pm AEST (2:40 AWST)? What was the idea of taking 40 minutes longer? Just so you know, I utterly detest Sunday night matches. And if I remember correctly, that was what stuffed Carlton's profits up back in 2014 when they were made the guinea pigs with three of the four Sunday night games. One of them was against Collingwood and drew in a very poor crowd.
- I don't know why, but I personally was a little vexed by Fremantle's need for fireworks in their entrance. It led to intense smoke that hung around for a little while before the game and into the first quarter. It's only a regular home and away match in round 15. Are fireworks really necessary? Same goes for every team including my own.
OTHER NOTES
- I only just noticed during this match. When did Samo get rid of the rat tail? I'm even surprised that he'd go ahead with cutting it off.
- Why on Earth did the match start so late? Doesn't a twilight game kick off at 4:40pm AEST (2:40 AWST)? What was the idea of taking 40 minutes longer? Just so you know, I utterly detest Sunday night matches. And if I remember correctly, that was what stuffed Carlton's profits up back in 2014 when they were made the guinea pigs with three of the four Sunday night games. One of them was against Collingwood and drew in a very poor crowd.
- I don't know why, but I personally was a little vexed by Fremantle's need for fireworks in their entrance. It led to intense smoke that hung around for a little while before the game and into the first quarter. It's only a regular home and away match in round 15. Are fireworks really necessary? Same goes for every team including my own.
NEXT WEEK
Another chance at back-to-back victories for the first time since June 2017 against a troubled Melbourne. Patrick Cripps is likely to miss this game as well for the blues while Max Gawn on the other side will have no problems recovering in time from his rolled ankle. Despite the demons being a lower ranked team in 2019 compared to the dockers, I see them being a tougher challenge for the Carlton boys. They have class all over the field and will go in very aggressive after their disappointing efforts against Brisbane. My tip is that they will get the better of the navy blues like last year, except the margin won't be as big. As a matter of fact, this is the first preseason prediction of mine that I don't completely stand by. Carlton have been impressive lately, fighting with plenty of spirit. Melbourne are also far from where they were last year. Regardless, I am not going to change the tip that I set to begin with because it would feel like I'm cheating. Besides, I did say earlier that it's a win-win situation for me.
PREDICTED LINE-UP
IN - Patrick Kerr
OUT - Charlie Curnow (Injured)
FB - Lachie Plowman - Jacob Weitering - Liam Jones
HB - Nic Newman - Caleb Marchbank - Dale Thomas
C - Sam Petrevski-Seton - Sam Walsh - Will Setterfield
HF - Michael Gibbons - Patrick Kerr - Zac Fisher
FF - Matthew Kennedy - Matthew Kreuzer - Jack Silvagni
R - Levi Casboult - Ed Curnow - Marc Murphy
I - Kade Simpson - Paddy Dow - Mitch McGovern - Lochie O'Brien
E - Matthew Cottrell - Darcy Lang - Hugh Goddard - Andrew Phillips
PREDICTED LINE-UP
IN - Patrick Kerr
OUT - Charlie Curnow (Injured)
FB - Lachie Plowman - Jacob Weitering - Liam Jones
HB - Nic Newman - Caleb Marchbank - Dale Thomas
C - Sam Petrevski-Seton - Sam Walsh - Will Setterfield
HF - Michael Gibbons - Patrick Kerr - Zac Fisher
FF - Matthew Kennedy - Matthew Kreuzer - Jack Silvagni
R - Levi Casboult - Ed Curnow - Marc Murphy
I - Kade Simpson - Paddy Dow - Mitch McGovern - Lochie O'Brien
E - Matthew Cottrell - Darcy Lang - Hugh Goddard - Andrew Phillips
Melbourne Demons by 72 points
Travis "TJ" James
